Walking Through The Woods

Kaydrie and I went on a walk yesterday to enjoy some of the foliage in the woods behind the house. It was a beautiful day and a beautiful hike. I certainly love New England in the fall.

An Appropriate Critique of Current College Football Politics

From Next Year's TMQ: FORT WORTH, Texas, Oct. 11, 2012 (Associated Press) TCU Chancellor Victor Boschini Jr. announced that the Horned Frogs had left the Pac-22 Conference and were accepting bids for their affiliation. TCU, he said, would on the following day join whatever conference offered the best revenue share, plus free membership in a fruit-of-the-month club. "What am I bid?" Boschini asked, brandishing a gavel. "Going once, going twice."

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Tom Pennington/Getty ImagesThe mascot's agent is negotiating with several conferences.

Having previously belonged to the Texas Intercollegiate Athletic Association, the Southwest Conference, the Western Athletic Conference, Conference USA and the Mountain West Conference, TCU announced in 2010 that it would join the Big East Conference. Then a satchel full of money was found at the athletic director's door, and the Horned Frogs said in 2011 they would join the Big 12 Conference. Shortly thereafter the Big 12 Conference changed its name to the Big XIII.5 Conference when the University of North Texas also joined.

After finding another satchel slipped under the door of the athletic director, in November 2011, TCU left the Big 12 for the Southeastern Conference. The SEC folded in December 2011, when Alabama and Auburn joined the National Football League, saying, "We feel more comfortable in a setting where literacy is optional." TCU jumped for a few months to the Small Ten, a conference then consisting of Penn State, West Virginia, Syracuse, the University of Nebraska-Kearney and whatever high schools weren't busy that week.

When the University of Texas went on its own to form the Longhorn Cash 'N' Carry Conference -- which plays no games, rather, does nothing but collect marketing fees -- TCU followed. When that conference broke into two divisions (the No Questions Asked Division and the Unmarked Bills Only Division), TCU briefly developed qualms. This was strongly denounced by the NCAA.

Just before the 2012 season began, TCU joined the Pac-15, which by opening day was the Pac-21. Now known as the Pac-22, the conference is looking for a football program to replace its loss of TCU. The Horned Frogs are said to be interested.

The Blame Game

Another Good Reason Not To Watch TV

If Only We Could Time-Travel to 1966, When "Star Trek" Premiered: Fox is saying its sci-fi series "Terra Nova," which premieres on Monday, is the most expensive television show ever made.

The premise: In the year 2149, environmental problems place humanity on the verge of extinction. No stardrive has been invented, so people can't flee to other worlds. But time travel has become possible. A group of plucky settlers is sent 85 million years into the past to "restart civilization" as kind and good, so the extinction scenario of 2149 never happens. But -- though possessed with the ultra-sophisticated knowledge necessary to build a time machine -- scientists of the future forget that 85 million years ago, there were dinosaurs. The travelers emerge from the time portal to a settlement surrounded by killer dinosaurs, and the show becomes what Hollywood likes best, a succession of chase scenes.

Recently the networks have given viewers big-budget sci-fi series "V," "Flash Forward" and "The Event." The common elements: lots of money was sunk into production, lots of overpaid people with connections were listed as producers, and terrible writing. All three were financial fiascos. "Star Trek," "Stargate" and "Dr. Who," TV's moneymaking sci-fi franchises, do have special effects, but the emphasis is on plot, story and sense of humor. The sci-fi audience is smart and seeks these things, reflecting the fact that well-written sci-fi series make money while poorly written sci-fi series lose money. But modern Hollywood hates the notion that shows should be well-written. This sets the bar too high! Modern Hollywood wants to believe the television audience is composed entirely of fools. So viewers get explosions and drek, while the networks' shareholders don't get ratings. Why doesn't actual experience make it obvious to television executives that well-written sci-fi shows earn returns and poorly written shows do not?

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FOXBefore entering the time portal, make sure you packed a toothbrush and extra socks.

Now about "Terra Nova." Even if, in the year 2149, everyone somehow forgot that dinosaurs once existed, why would the people be sent 85 million years into the past? That's an unimaginable span, about 17,000 times as long as the period between the present and the construction of the Great Pyramid at Giza. Supposing the plucky group did "restart civilization" that far back in the past, after 85 million years had gone by, their civilization might have vanished, or its people have evolved into a form unrecognizable to us.

If heading into the past made sense, the place to go to restart civilization would be 15,000 years ago -- when the last ice age was ending and the Holocene beginning. The world of 15,000 years ago would be recognizable to people of the 22nd century, and near enough in time that any better society they created might last into the present.

Another silliness, noted by reader G L Crosslin of Biloxi, Miss.,: The "Terra Nova" expedition is going back to a point before the mass extinction that wiped out the dinosaurs, when our world was struck by an enormous comet that ended much of life on Earth. Wouldn't you rather materialize after that nasty business concluded?

Other time travel premise problems:

• Suppose it is possible to travel into the past and change things. If so at the instant you step into the time machine, any changes you caused already happened long ago, and the present would already be transformed. The instant the first settlers stepped into the "Terra Nova" time machine, whatever impact they were going to have they've already had. The year 2149 would already be a result of their past impact.

• If people emerged from a time portal in the past, they wouldn't forget how they got there. They might conclude that unless the Earth of 2149 was falling apart from pollution, the time machine would never be built, they would never be sent back, so they would cease to exist. Therefore they would have to conspire to ensure that human history unfolded in such a way as to cause calamity in 2149. Maybe the whole reason the world of 2149 needs a time machine is that a prior world of 2149 had a time machine!

These kinds of paradoxes are among the reasons time travel is almost surely impossible on a physical basis. Beyond that, the big objection to time travel is not how the time machine would function. The big objection is that even if you had a time machine, where would it travel to?

In order for your time machine to open a doorway 85 million years in the past, there must be another complete universe, with another Earth and another 100 billion galaxies, suspended forever in the moment of 85 million years earlier. If you jumped instead 84 million years into the past, there must be a third complete universe, with another 100 billion galaxies, except it's 84 million years earlier. If you wanted to use the time machine to go back to yesterday, there must be a fourth complete universe, with yet another 100 billion galaxies, suspended forever in yesterday. Jump to last week? A fifth complete extra universe is required.

For your time machine to jump to different years in the past or future, there must be billions, even an infinite number of different universes -- each with 100 billion galaxies, each suspended forever in a different instant. OK, I cannot prove there are not an infinite number of universes, each suspended forever in a slightly different moment. But unless there are, a time machine would have no destination to which to travel.

Reader Al Vyssotsky of Greenville, S.C., adds another complication: "The solar system is rotating around the galactic center at approximately 43,000 miles per hour. Thus if a person were to travel back in time, he or she would wind up many billions of miles from Earth's position in the past. Our Milky Way galaxy is moving at1.3 million miles per hour or about two-tenths of the speed of light, in the direction of the constellation Hydra. This suggests that even a short time-travel trip would place the traveler trillions of miles from Earth's position in the past. Going backward 85 million years, as is depicted in "Terra Nova," would result in being about 170,000 light years from Earth's position at that time. That distance is roughly twice the diameter of the galaxy. So you'd need to bring along quite a starship with you through the time machine."

Americans Are Alarmist & Often Stupid

Anchors Aweigh, My Mandarins, Anchors Aweigh: With national red ink meaning the defense budget is likely to decline, aerospace contractors, and members of Congress with aerospace contractors in their districts, dearly would love a new bogeyman. How about the Chinese? OMG, China is building ships!

"CHINA FLEXES NAVAL MUSCLE" was the Wall Street Journal banner headline last month when the unnamed Chinese aircraft carrier took a test sail. Many of the nation's major newspapers had this menace on the front page, in stories that could have been written by the P.R. department of any defense contractor. One factor at work is that many journalists at elite media organizations have little knowledge of military affairs, and so don't know how to put the Chinese carrier into perspective. So let's put it into perspective.

The "Chinese" aircraft carrier is actually the Varyag, laid down in 1985 by the old Soviet Union. The Varyag languished in port for two decades, a white elephant for Moscow. A few years ago, the Russkies sold the leaky hull to Beijing. The Varyag was in such poor repair it had to be towed to Chinese waters.

United States NavyThe menacing Varyag -- China's navy sails into the 1960s.

Now the Chinese navy -- whose delightful official name is the People's Liberation Army Navy -- has been tarting the hull up. Let's suppose the project is successful. The Varyag does not have nuclear power, like all United States Navy carriers. It's primary design element is a shortened "sky jump" deck, not a flat deck with catapult like all United States Navy carriers, meaning the Varjag can launch only short-range medium-performance jets, not long-range high-performance jets like all United States Navy carriers. The Varyag weighs 67,000 tons and carries about 40 aircraft; the latest United States Navy carriers weigh about 100,000 tons and carry about 100 aircraft. The Varyag is what the United States Navy would call a Kennedy-class aircraft carrier, the John F. Kennedy being the last conventionally powered carrier built by the United States. And the Kennedy was launched in 1967.

Even if all goes well for the Varyag, it brings the Chinese navy to roughly the position, regarding warship quality, that the United States Navy was in 44 years ago. Now take into account quantity. The United States Navy has 11 supercarrier assault groups -- a very large nuclear supercarrier accompanied by guided-missile cruisers and destroyers, with two types of nuclear submarines unseen underneath. How many supercarriers are possessed by the rest of the world combined? None. The race to naval supremacy, a grand theme of 500 years of great-power politics, has ended with the United States besting the rest of the world combined by a final score of 11-0.

China's obsolete carrier does nothing to alter this. The politics of the obsolete carrier are particularly silly. Commentators are suggesting that China's work on an aircraft carrier means it plans to engage in hostilities with the United States. Yet America says its far larger and far stronger navy is strictly for defensive purposes, threatening no one. If the United States asserts that 11 advanced supercarrier strike groups can patrol the world's seas without hostile intent, how can we simultaneously claim that China possessing a single obsolete aircraft carrier represents a provocation?

How badly do you want...

What are you willing to give up for your dreams?

It seemed like a good idea at the time...

Al Nawfaliyah, Libya — At this rebel outpost in the middle of the desert near the front lines of the fight with Muammar Qaddafi’s loyalists, a gaggle of rebel fighters gathers in a circle, laughing, cheering, and filming with their mobile phones. In the center stands a 21-year-old American college student from LA
.

Chris Jeon wears a cobalt basketball jersey emblazoned with the words “Los Angeles” and the number 44, camouflage pants, and black and white Converse sneakers. Around his neck hangs a spent ammunition casing on a string, and a black and white scarf is wrapped around his head, courtesy of the rebel fighters.


Why is he here? 




“This is one of the few real revolutions,” he said. “I just thought I’d come check it out.”
It’s an unusual summer break for a college student, especially for a math major at University of California, Los Angeles, who says he spent his last spring break in Quebec. But Mr. Jeon is near the front lines of a conflict that has already taken thousands of lives, and is likely to cost many more if rebels launch a planned assault on Mr. Qaddafi’s hometown of Sirte.
Jeon doesn’t seem worried.


“I just go and see what happens,” he said. “At spring break I told my friends a 'sick' vacation would be to come here and fight with the rebels.” 

He spent $800 on a one-way ticket from L.A. to Cairo, then traveled by land across the border into Libya, where he has now been for nearly two weeks. His parents do not know he is here. He speaks no Arabic, and has been staying with fighters and families in the area.
“I haven’t spent a dollar in weeks,” he says, because the people of Libya have extended such hospitality. 

He has no way of contact with the outside world, and on Tuesday was unsure of the date. Yet he seemed to be having the time of his life.

At the rebel checkpoint about 80 miles from Sirte, he held a Russian-made shotgun the rebels had given him, appearing to be unfamiliar with it. Then a rebel handed him an AK-47, and he awkwardly fired several rounds into the air. The fighters cheered and laughed before quickly taking the gun back.

The boisterous rebel fighters, clearly enjoying this foreigner who had joined their ranks, shouted competing offers for him to join their respective brigades. Jeon needed translation to understand what they were asking. He communicates with sign language, and broken Italian.
He said the rebels had bestowed upon him an honorary Libyan name: Ahmed El Maghrabi Saidi Barga. As he said it, the rebels roared in approval. 

Jeon said he was “helping” the rebels, though he didn’t appear to be using firearms.
He was among the first rebel fighters who drove into Nawlifyia to take it from Qaddafi troops, he said. And he’s not worried about staying safe amid the possible battle for Sirte – the rebels have set a Saturday deadline for Qaddafi loyalists there to surrender, before they attack.
“I believe in destiny,” he said.